32 – Season Finale – The State of Play, The Road Ahead & Where Lies Germany?

00:00:00: Welcome to Berlin Side Out, the podcast that takes an expert look at how Germany sees the

00:00:05: world and the world sees Germany.

00:00:07: With me, Benjamin Tallis.

00:00:09: And me, Aaron Gash-Bernett.

00:00:16: Welcome back to Berlin Side Out, the Foreign Affairs podcast that takes an expert look

00:00:20: at international politics from Berlin.

00:00:23: In association with the German Council on Foreign Relations, I'm Aaron Gash-Bernett,

00:00:28: a journalist and security analyst, and I'm here for one final time this season with my

00:00:33: friend and co-host, Benjamin Tallis, Senior Research Fellow here at the Council and head

00:00:38: of its action group, Seitan Wendeben.

00:00:42: What a season.

00:00:43: A lot has happened.

00:00:44: We've covered a great deal.

00:00:46: And I know we have lots of key lessons and highlights to look back on and chat about in a little

00:00:50: bit more detail, as well as some news about what's next for us at Berlin Side Out.

00:00:56: We'll be getting into that a little bit later, but first, we have some important news coming

00:01:03: out of Brussels today.

00:01:06: Ben, what is it and what do you make of it right now, especially as we have a few key

00:01:12: events coming up soon, the Washington NATO summit, the US election?

00:01:18: What kind of signal are we getting out of Brussels this morning?

00:01:21: Well, a very positive one for anyone who cares about the future of free Europe and our future

00:01:26: security and prosperity.

00:01:28: The nomination of Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas to the position of high representative

00:01:33: for the foreign and security policy of the European Union is great news.

00:01:37: It's something that we've strongly advocated for because Kaya Kallas has been one of the

00:01:42: outstanding leaders in Europe in the last few years.

00:01:46: And Europe needs its best players on the pitch, and we've got them in this case in Kallas

00:01:50: getting this nomination to become what is in effect the EU's foreign policy chief.

00:01:55: And we can expect her to work closely with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,

00:01:59: who was also nominated for that position.

00:02:02: And rounding out the trio of appointments that were made yesterday was former Portuguese

00:02:06: Prime Minister Antonio Costa.

00:02:08: So there's one from each of the three main established party groupings in the European

00:02:13: Parliament.

00:02:14: Costa from the Socialists and Democrats, von der Leyen from the European People's Party,

00:02:17: Senator Wright, and Kallas from Renew Europe, the Liberal Grouping.

00:02:21: Yes, indeed.

00:02:22: And we also see as well, and we've spoken about this before, the geographic representation

00:02:26: is also important here as well.

00:02:29: I mean, Costa, of course, is from the south of Europe.

00:02:32: Ursula von der Leyen is German.

00:02:34: First German Commission President we've actually had since the 1960s, I believe.

00:02:40: And then, of course, Kaya Kallas very crucially is from Central and Eastern Europe.

00:02:45: That was a very key point, certainly, that we supported ourselves, but also that we heard

00:02:50: very key figures within the European Council, within the leaders of the European Council.

00:02:56: Stress was critical for them, particularly Donald Tusk, for example, from Poland, saying

00:03:03: that Central and Eastern Europe really did finally need to have proper representation

00:03:08: in a very, very senior post in this particular commission.

00:03:13: What do we make of the news of Kaya Kallas' nomination from that perspective, the fact

00:03:17: that we actually have a Central or an Eastern European sitting in a top position like that?

00:03:23: What kind of signal is that sending?

00:03:24: Yeah, it's extremely important, and it's one that addresses a longstanding and ongoing,

00:03:31: very justified grievance on behalf of the Central Eastern European members of the European

00:03:35: Union.

00:03:36: They've been members for 20 years now, and that membership has been celebrated this year,

00:03:41: but previously they've been really overlooked for the top jobs.

00:03:44: In fact, it was Tusk himself who's been the only holder of one of those top three positions

00:03:48: during the time of the membership of the Central East European states.

00:03:54: This is a good start, but it doesn't go all the way to addressing that.

00:03:57: This is not something that should be considered as quota filling, it's not something that

00:04:01: should be considered as box ticking.

00:04:02: Kallas is there absolutely on merit as one of the top candidates in Europe, but it seems

00:04:07: as though to actually be recognized as being top from Central Eastern Europe is a bit more

00:04:12: difficult than it is if you come from one of the EU's traditional countries, even though

00:04:16: they're actually the ones who are currently struggling, and Europe is very much most alive

00:04:20: in its center and its east.

00:04:22: You only have to go to the Baltic states or go to Poland to actually feel that.

00:04:26: So I think this is an extremely important step, but it's only a step on the way.

00:04:30: And now, of course, Kallas and von der Leyen and Co. need some backup on the European Commission.

00:04:35: It's great to have such a strong voice, such a clear-eyed view as Kallas brings to the

00:04:40: Commission, but imagine how much more effective that commission will be if there's more people

00:04:44: with that kind of view as well.

00:04:46: And it'll be no surprise to listen as a Berlin side out that you and I, Erin, I think would

00:04:50: very strongly advocate for the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabriele Slansbergis, to

00:04:54: be included in this group.

00:04:56: He's also proven himself to be an extremely strong leader over the last four years, clear

00:05:01: about the threats we face and what to do about them, but also very good at building new partnerships

00:05:05: such as the one that Lithuania has built with Taiwan, showing how we can do well by doing

00:05:10: good, showing how we can really actually synthesize and combine effectively our values with our

00:05:16: interests.

00:05:17: Absolutely.

00:05:18: And if that were to happen, I think we would have a more new idealist cabinet, if you will,

00:05:24: at the top of Europe there.

00:05:26: You might say that.

00:05:27: I couldn't possibly comment.

00:05:29: Well, there we go.

00:05:31: We'll reserve comment for now.

00:05:32: And then we might come back to that a little bit later in the show, by the way.

00:05:37: We might have some news for everyone there.

00:05:41: But one thing I would like to say about box ticking in Chaya Callis.

00:05:46: I mean, Chaya Callis does tick a lot of boxes, but if you were only concerned about ticking

00:05:53: boxes, Callis would probably not necessarily be your choice.

00:05:57: I mean, this is a position HRVP, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice

00:06:04: President of the European Commission that has in the past been filled by much, much weaker

00:06:11: figures.

00:06:12: And people who were specifically chosen because they were unlikely to really challenge a lot

00:06:20: of the status quo coming out of various big member states in Europe.

00:06:26: It's hard to imagine Chaya Callis doing that.

00:06:29: Aaron, this is very unfair.

00:06:30: It's before 5 p.m.

00:06:31: I don't have a beer or a gin tonic and you're expecting me to discuss Josep Borrell in a

00:06:36: sensible fashion.

00:06:37: This is really not called for.

00:06:39: But you are right.

00:06:40: I mean, it's been very unfortunate that Europe has sought candidates in that crucial position

00:06:45: who seem to be mainly there so as not to embarrass the serving ministers or not to outperform

00:06:50: the serving ministers from the member states.

00:06:54: And Borrell has been a fairly unmitigated disaster as the High Representative.

00:06:58: He's not been able to effectively craft messages when he has had the license to do it.

00:07:02: He's really messed it up.

00:07:03: So that horrible neocolonial talk of the garden and the jungle and so on, which did absolutely

00:07:08: no one any favors.

00:07:09: This is in any case going to be a massive step up.

00:07:12: But also prior to that, Federica Mogherini wasn't terribly effective despite having some

00:07:17: good ideas.

00:07:19: And before that, Kathy Ashton rather underperformed as well.

00:07:22: The last really truly credible High Representative for the foreign and security policy that we

00:07:26: have is Javier Solana, who had previously been NATO Secretary General, of course, and

00:07:30: came with a very strong international pedigree.

00:07:34: But I think the unfortunate lesson that was learned then was indeed the person in this

00:07:37: position can shine and taking a very small minded approach, then the member states decided

00:07:42: they didn't want that.

00:07:43: It reminds me a little bit of that old story about recruiting for your company.

00:07:48: If you always hire people smaller than you, you're going to end up with a company of

00:07:52: dwarfs.

00:07:53: If you hire people who are bigger than you, you're going to end up with a company of giants.

00:07:56: And this is what the EU has taken a step to doing now.

00:08:00: So again, this has to be back up there.

00:08:02: There has to be the competence and credibility to go with it.

00:08:04: And that's also going to be affected by how the other portfolios are handed out, what money

00:08:09: is available, and what the strategic agenda of the European Union for the next five years

00:08:13: is, which was also on the agenda for this council meeting.

00:08:17: And I think just a couple of words on how those, the posts are chosen is appropriate

00:08:22: here as well, because what we know is that the three mainstream political groupings from

00:08:29: the European Parliament, the Liberals were new, S&D, the centre left and EPP, the centre

00:08:35: right, each appointed two prime ministers to do these negotiations for the top jobs.

00:08:41: And they came up with these candidates that we've seen.

00:08:43: And it was Olaf Schultz and Pedro Sanchez for the S&D, Kariakis Mitsotakis and Donald

00:08:50: Tusk for the European People's Party, and Emmanuel Macron and Mark Rutte, of course,

00:08:55: outgoing Dutch PM about to become NATO Secretary General for the Renew Europe Grouping.

00:09:00: Now this caused a bit of a furore as Georgia Maloney, who heads up the European Conservatives

00:09:06: and Reformers, the far right group in the European Parliament, thought that her grouping

00:09:11: was being sidelined, despite having had a very strong showing in the recent European

00:09:16: elections, coming third, actually ahead of the Renew Europe Group.

00:09:21: And Renews standing in this was questioned, particularly after the Czech party, ANO, which

00:09:26: is the party of the oligarch Andrzej Babisz, always an odd fit for Renew, it had to be

00:09:30: said.

00:09:31: They pulled out of Renew, and that took another seven seats away from Renew.

00:09:35: But what we've seen now happen is that the ECR seems to be falling apart with the Polish

00:09:40: law and justice or peace party threatening to pull out and form a new grouping together

00:09:45: with ANO and with Hungary's Viktor Orban, with the Fidesz party there.

00:09:50: So by actually falling victim to their own internal splits have done Renew a massive

00:09:54: favour under the mainstream parties in the parliament, a big favour.

00:09:58: So we can expect to see those three main groupings, the centre-right, centre-left and the Liberals

00:10:03: divvying up most of the rest of the commissioned posts, also together, of course, with all

00:10:08: the member state leaders, and there'll be a lot of horse trading going on in the next

00:10:12: few weeks.

00:10:13: It's personalities who would make a good commissioner, it's portfolios, what are the

00:10:17: jobs on the table, and it's about the kind of balance that you mentioned before.

00:10:21: But also dividing up those portfolios is going to be an interesting thing.

00:10:25: So for example, does Thierry Breton, the internal market commissioner, continue to have responsibility

00:10:31: for defence industry issues?

00:10:34: Or to what extent does that go to a new commissioner for defence industry?

00:10:37: Now, if there's substantial responsibility and money to go with it, then that new post

00:10:42: would be very attractive.

00:10:43: If it's mainly the leftovers from what Thierry Breton, the French commissioner doesn't

00:10:47: want, then it becomes less attractive.

00:10:49: Although I'd argue that actually it's where the action is going to be in the next five

00:10:51: years, so it would still be a good portfolio for someone to aim for.

00:10:55: And I do think that, I agree with you, I think watching the defence commissioner post, first

00:11:01: of all, who gets it?

00:11:02: That will be a key question, because who gets it always sends a signal about how

00:11:07: seriously you might take it.

00:11:08: I mean, Callis herself being nominated for a high representative is a signal, a very,

00:11:14: very strong signal about how seriously that post is taken.

00:11:17: So I wonder if we'll see something similar for the defence commissioner.

00:11:21: That's a big thing that we need to be watching for in the next little while.

00:11:25: And also what kind of, as you say, what kind of powers that's going to have, because that's

00:11:28: going to be quite a signal as to whether Europe is serious about being a proper geostrategic

00:11:35: and geopolitical actor.

00:11:37: We have a geopolitical commission.

00:11:39: That's right.

00:11:40: A meaningful geopolitical commission, not just one in declaration.

00:11:42: And when Josep Borrell talked about speaking the language of power, it didn't seem to be

00:11:45: one he was intimately actually familiar with himself or understood how to deploy into action.

00:11:54: But again, personality comes into it.

00:11:55: Whoever would get that role would have to work very closely with Callis, would have

00:11:59: to work closely with Ocelofonderline.

00:12:01: And so that personal chemistry often matters as well.

00:12:04: And we've seen certainly the personal chemistry between Ocelofonderline and Charles Michel,

00:12:09: not being perhaps all it could have been over the last few years.

00:12:11: We'll remember the chair crisis.

00:12:13: Oh, yes.

00:12:14: It's taken a few years back.

00:12:16: It's seen as though Costa will be a much easier fit for Ocelofonderline to work with.

00:12:21: So at least there should be harmony at the top of the commission and the council and

00:12:25: how the other personalities breakdown remains to be seen.

00:12:30: That commission will start its work in October, having been approved or not approved or challenged

00:12:35: by the European Parliament in September.

00:12:37: So there's a lot to get done before then.

00:12:40: And that process will also be related to this setting of the strategic agenda, which is the

00:12:46: big ticket items, the big strategy.

00:12:48: And we talk a lot about strategy on this show that the EU wants to achieve over the next

00:12:53: five years.

00:12:54: And the watchword for this is making Europe a powerhouse, making it strong, making it

00:12:59: able to defend itself.

00:13:01: And the EU is going to have a big role to play in that.

00:13:04: And in a second, we're going to talk a bit more about NATO, but certainly the EU will

00:13:07: have a big role to play there.

00:13:09: And so it's been very disappointing to see Germany's Olaf Scholz at this summit talking

00:13:15: apparently about how the strategic agenda wasn't ambitious enough, while at the same

00:13:20: time doing his level best to make it less ambitious by continuing to block the idea

00:13:26: of common funding for defence.

00:13:27: And this apparently caused an almighty row in Brussels last night with Donald Tusk and

00:13:33: others strongly objecting to the fact that Germany was not willing to come in on common

00:13:38: bonds for defence spending.

00:13:40: Interesting to note that Scholz was joined by Mark Rutte on this, which does not necessarily

00:13:44: bode well for NATO-EU cooperation going forward.

00:13:48: And it's an indication of where Rutte might stand on some of these issues, or is he perhaps

00:13:53: just marking out territory for NATO?

00:13:54: And I think if he is, that's really unproductive because the EU and NATO really need to work

00:13:59: strongly together going forward.

00:14:00: And this isn't the first time that Scholz has obviously blocked a necessary measure

00:14:04: for Europe to act more strategically, or for us to have a more strategic compass in Europe.

00:14:10: That's happened regularly over the last several years, but also it's happened recently as

00:14:15: well.

00:14:16: I mean, there was a round of sanctions that the EU was set to agree to earlier this month

00:14:24: that got torpedoed by Germany.

00:14:27: Those were sanctions targeting Russian gas, liquefied natural gas.

00:14:34: We also saw the reports of a possibility that Germany was torpedoing a G7 statement on China,

00:14:42: for example, or a much stronger one.

00:14:43: We've also seen evidence that Germany has been one of the big legrids on the question

00:14:49: about whether we should seize Russian assets and transfer them over to Ukraine.

00:14:54: That is also something that came out of the recent G7 summit earlier this month as well.

00:15:00: So we have several examples all within the same month even of Germany just being generally

00:15:06: obstructive.

00:15:09: And it led to one European diplomat quoted in Politico, for example, saying that we don't

00:15:16: need Hungary when we have Germany to block things.

00:15:18: I mean, that's not really the kinds of things that you want written and said about your

00:15:25: ability to act strategically, is it?

00:15:27: Ouch, no.

00:15:28: I mean, that's very reminiscent of the early days after the full scale invasion of Ukraine

00:15:32: as well when a government that prided itself on its moral standing and its moral rectitude

00:15:37: of its country was being morally outcompeted by Boris Johnson and the peace government

00:15:40: in Poland.

00:15:42: So this is something that Germans need to reflect on.

00:15:44: Their reputation is very much at stake here.

00:15:47: And as it has been for the last two years, I don't think there's an awareness in Berlin

00:15:51: of how damaging some of this stuff that they're doing is.

00:15:54: I mean, you mentioned more torpedoes there than the German Navy probably has at its disposal,

00:15:59: given the current state of rebuilding, Aaron.

00:16:01: But this, for me, one of the key things was not only this stalling of the sanctions, but

00:16:07: really this blocking of combined joint EU funding, common funding for defense, which

00:16:12: is absolutely essential to our survival as democratic societies.

00:16:18: And having failed to properly equip and fund its own military even after the failed Zeit

00:16:23: and Wende, now Germany led by Schultz and Christian Linton, the finance minister, seems

00:16:28: to be trying to generalize its malaise to the rest of Europe.

00:16:31: And this is a remarkable stubbornness and unwillingness to read the room as well as

00:16:36: to actually work out what the geopolitical situation is.

00:16:39: And again, I think this is really indicative of where Germany's transformation and its

00:16:43: standing currently is at.

00:16:45: And this has been a big conclusion coming out of the action group.

00:16:47: Titanbender's work over the last nearly two years now is that Germany risks being left

00:16:53: behind and that others will move ahead and that Germany will not always just be able

00:16:57: to stand in the middle of the road blocking others to come through by the end of its economic

00:17:02: heft.

00:17:03: It will be much easier and much better if Germany fully comes on board, but others are

00:17:07: no longer willing to wait.

00:17:08: And this is a message coming from meetings I've had in the Nordic states as well as

00:17:14: the Baltic states and Central and Eastern Europe in recent weeks.

00:17:17: They all want to move ahead at pace and patience with Berlin is really, really wearing thin.

00:17:22: So I think that's something that we're going to have to watch very closely going forward.

00:17:25: And I mean, this isn't simply a question of how we deal with Russia either.

00:17:30: I mean, this also comes up when we talk about how Germany deals with China.

00:17:34: We also even had a minister from Germany, Volker Fissing, who went to China to basically

00:17:46: undermining a common German government position even on tariffs on Chinese vehicles.

00:17:53: Never mind a common European position as well.

00:17:58: I mean, as you say, read the room guys.

00:18:00: I mean, why do we not have politicians who seem to be able to be capable of this basic

00:18:07: political skill of reading the room?

00:18:09: Well, indeed.

00:18:10: I mean, it's the lizard brain rather than any kind of strategic thinking is grabbing

00:18:13: immediately what you see as being yours or shiny and ready for the taking rather than

00:18:18: thinking how that might actually play out and vissing all over Germany's reputation

00:18:22: while doing it, which is really not helpful.

00:18:25: And it's interesting to note that Noah Barkin, who's one of the China experts who's been

00:18:29: as part of the Action Group, Zeitmender said that this really showed that Germany's coalition

00:18:34: government is in chaos on the China issue because Vice Chancellor Robert Harbeck in

00:18:38: his visits to China just a week before had said something totally different.

00:18:42: Now it does look like Chancellor Schultz is trying to put his foot down and insist that

00:18:46: Vissing was actually wrong to do this.

00:18:48: But at the same time, I don't think as far as I know yet Schultz has stepped back from

00:18:52: the position that was being taken there.

00:18:54: So we'll have to see.

00:18:55: Germany, of course, was an object to the EU's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric

00:19:01: vehicles.

00:19:02: The German car industry is China's number one lobbyist in Brussels.

00:19:06: And this is something that is going to continue to irritate European partners and continues

00:19:10: to undermine our security.

00:19:12: It continues to show the schism at the heart of German security policy, which was made very

00:19:17: clear in the national security strategy in which Uli Speck, who is a leading German security

00:19:22: and foreign policy analyst, he wrote about this for us in that special.

00:19:25: The special issue of international politics that we commissioned for the action group

00:19:28: site and vendor talking about those two visions that are inherent in that strategy, one of

00:19:33: systemic competition, which was put forward by Elena Baerbock, the green foreign minister,

00:19:38: and the other of multi polarity put forward by Olaf Schultz and his forward to the national

00:19:43: security strategy that failed to be a strategy.

00:19:45: And so this we're continuing to see the fruits of that confusion, born out in decision after

00:19:51: decision, in decision after in decision, flawed action after flawed action.

00:19:57: And Berlin really needs to get a hold on this.

00:19:59: But Aaron, I don't know what you think.

00:20:00: How's how's your feeling on this after the European elections?

00:20:04: Where do we stand then in Berlin in terms of getting a hold on the strategic picture?

00:20:08: Oh, yes, I mean, that's just a car crash really.

00:20:14: At the moment, I would say just in Germany, we'll point out that the European election

00:20:19: results for Olaf Schultz's ruling social Democrats within Germany, at least, were the

00:20:25: worst that has ever been recorded in a national contest in the history of the Federal Republic.

00:20:34: Now we should point out that they were not the only losers there.

00:20:38: All government parties lost, particularly the Greens, very, very, very heavy losses they

00:20:44: experienced as a result of those elections, which really speaks to probably, I would say,

00:20:53: and I'm sure you would agree with me here, to the fact that they have struggled to carve

00:20:59: out a really clear defined identity for themselves within this coalition.

00:21:05: And we certainly see that in German foreign policy.

00:21:09: I think that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbach was much stronger on certain files

00:21:15: around Ukraine, around delivering leopards, for example, tanks, and that sort of strong

00:21:22: profile just has not been evident for the last little while.

00:21:29: When it comes to Ukraine in particular or Germany's strategic position, we don't see

00:21:35: her really taking issue with the government's strategic decisions in a way that she once

00:21:42: did.

00:21:43: I think you're right about this identity crisis for the Greens.

00:21:45: I mean, they're seen by too many people as a party of prohibitions and impositions, and

00:21:50: yet they've failed to prohibit the combustion engine, and they've failed to impose the heat

00:21:55: pumps, which were two parts of their main agenda.

00:21:57: So while they talk in a way that irritates a lot of people outside of their core voters,

00:22:02: they don't actually use that to be able to deliver on the things that their core voters

00:22:05: would welcome and celebrate.

00:22:07: And they've become associated with actually legitimizing the policies of Olaf Scholz and

00:22:12: Christian Lindner, which they very clearly know are suboptimal, according to Germany's

00:22:16: security interest, according to Europe's security interest.

00:22:20: So the Greens need to find themselves, they need to find their voice again, they need to

00:22:23: work out what and who they are actually for, if they're going to recover that standing that

00:22:28: they were they had, and also that trajectory towards becoming one of the major parties

00:22:32: of German politics in a way that could challenge the largest two parties, the CDU and SPD.

00:22:38: Now for the SPD, of course, Chancellor Scholz's attempt to speak out of both sides of his

00:22:42: mouth during the campaign and present himself as a freedoms counselor, peace chancellor

00:22:46: on the one hand and a security chancellor on the other hand, predictably failed to convince

00:22:50: anybody.

00:22:51: And it was noteworthy that their lead candidate for the European elections, Katarina Barley,

00:22:55: said, we didn't get any tailwinds from Berlin.

00:22:59: So I the support of Olaf Scholz and having him so strongly involved in the campaign,

00:23:03: he was on all the campaign posters, didn't work very well at all.

00:23:08: And there's now a lot of talk around Berlin and there's an article in foreign policy this

00:23:11: week about it, which quotes DJP's Christian Merling, talking about whether whether Boris

00:23:17: Pistorius would make a better Chancellor candidate for the SPD next year.

00:23:21: When it comes to the CDU, I mean, they were the big winners of the EU elections in Germany,

00:23:27: 100% far ahead of anyone else.

00:23:29: But while I think they had a policy offer and a positioning that was good enough to

00:23:34: win a partisan victory, they don't yet have the compelling offer that's good enough to

00:23:38: solve Germany's problems.

00:23:39: So they've got a lot of work to do before the election next year as well.

00:23:44: And Aaron, I don't know about you, but I was a bit disappointed to hear coming from Fridrich

00:23:48: Mertz, the leader of the CDU in his summer interview, some softer language on Ukraine

00:23:53: than we've heard from him in recent times.

00:23:55: I think about the need to find a way to stop the conflict, talking about the difficulties

00:24:01: of further weapons deliveries and so on.

00:24:04: That didn't strike me as sticking to the same tone he struck in the recent past where he

00:24:08: said Ukraine needs to win.

00:24:10: Yeah, absolutely.

00:24:11: And I think that one of the reasons for that is simply cold calculated electoral politics.

00:24:18: We have three state elections coming up in autumn in Germany in eastern states where

00:24:26: the far right off day is expected to do well.

00:24:30: But so is the far left Bayes-Vey of Sarah Vagenknecht's outfit.

00:24:36: Both of these factions are.

00:24:39: absolutely pro-Russian, absolutely have, you know,

00:24:44: support a lot of Putin's positions

00:24:45: or even have, you know, historical links to Putin himself.

00:24:50: And there is basically some of this maneuvering, I think,

00:24:55: both by Olaf Scholz during the European election campaign,

00:25:00: as well as by Metz with those comments

00:25:03: that he made in that summer interview,

00:25:06: really have those elections in mind.

00:25:11: Now, I find this very alarming for a number of reasons.

00:25:15: It is sending out the absolute wrong message to our allies.

00:25:20: That kind of campaigning is really placing

00:25:23: Germany's overall geostrategic position

00:25:27: at the altar of some state elections.

00:25:29: That is not what the German public wants overall.

00:25:32: We have seen polls recently saying

00:25:34: that even if a plurality of voters in Eastern states

00:25:39: want less military support for Ukraine,

00:25:44: overall, most Germans, when you take the entire country,

00:25:48: do actually want not simply the same level

00:25:52: of military support for Ukraine,

00:25:54: they want more military support for Ukraine.

00:25:58: So this really is a disservice to the German public,

00:26:00: I think as a whole,

00:26:01: as well as to Germany's overall geostrategic positioning

00:26:06: in Europe and with its allies.

00:26:07: - Yeah, and I think it's important not to just buy into

00:26:11: some of the rhetoric that's coming out

00:26:12: of those extremist anti-democratic parties,

00:26:14: like the IAF Day and the Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht,

00:26:17: because Germans in general are concerned

00:26:19: about things like their economic decline,

00:26:21: their country's overall decline,

00:26:23: what concerned about cost of living,

00:26:25: they're concerned about migration,

00:26:27: they're concerned about losing benefits and taxes rising,

00:26:30: although someone at some point is gonna have to tell them

00:26:32: that actually nothing comes for free

00:26:34: and they're not just entitled to all this stuff

00:26:36: and that actually the world is changing

00:26:37: and they can't just continue to pretend it isn't.

00:26:40: But what really irritates me, I have to say,

00:26:43: is when I hear about people being war weary,

00:26:45: what on earth made them tired from this war?

00:26:48: What right do they have to be tired?

00:26:49: What right does anyone in European Union countries

00:26:52: have to be tired of the war

00:26:53: that we're not actually yet even involved in fighting?

00:26:56: Others are fighting and dying for our freedom at the moment.

00:26:59: And I think it's also about time some German politicians

00:27:01: stood up and had the courage to tell their people,

00:27:03: if anyone among you is feeling war weary,

00:27:05: you should be ashamed of yourself.

00:27:07: And here's why.

00:27:08: And here's why we need to win that war

00:27:10: and here's why we need to actually go forward and do better

00:27:13: rather than as Ben Hodges said on our previous episode,

00:27:16: we haven't even tried yet.

00:27:18: So this is about getting serious again

00:27:21: with the German people and explaining to them

00:27:23: that indeed the country's current track is not good enough.

00:27:26: They're right to be worried about decline,

00:27:28: but here's how we get hold of it.

00:27:30: And it's not gonna come for free.

00:27:32: First up, we're gonna have to pay some costs,

00:27:34: but here's how we plan to make those into investments

00:27:37: in your better future.

00:27:38: And I don't see that level of big debate

00:27:41: and big grappling with those issues.

00:27:43: But as we've seen recently,

00:27:45: Germany's not the only car crash

00:27:46: in the democratic world at the moment.

00:27:49: - No.

00:27:50: - We've come out of watching overnight,

00:27:51: of course the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

00:27:55: Aaron, what was your take on that from North America?

00:27:57: - Well, a car crash is absolutely correct.

00:28:00: That is, there's no sugarcoating what happened there.

00:28:05: I mean, Joe Biden very clearly was weak,

00:28:09: was not on the attack,

00:28:11: seemed to not really be lucid enough,

00:28:13: seemed to not really have the necessary grasp

00:28:17: of any issue at all.

00:28:20: And then we even had a discussion in that debate

00:28:25: about golf handicaps.

00:28:27: I mean, that just really summed up to me.

00:28:31: The disconnect is clear.

00:28:32: This is not what American voters care to see

00:28:36: and this is certainly not what America's allies care to see

00:28:39: is a discussion about your golf handicap

00:28:42: at a time of this kind of geo-strategic apparel,

00:28:45: this moment that we all need to rise to

00:28:47: is the democratic world.

00:28:49: - That's right.

00:28:49: And I think the Democrats have some serious questions

00:28:51: to ask themselves about whether Biden is up to the job.

00:28:55: Not only is he capable of,

00:28:56: if he's capable of winning the election,

00:28:57: but is he up to the job?

00:28:59: And while we might not have agreed

00:29:00: on Joe Biden's approach to Ukraine

00:29:03: or that taken by his national security advisor,

00:29:05: Jake Sullivan, where the tentative approach

00:29:08: they've taken has done great harm,

00:29:10: as we've said many times previously on the show.

00:29:12: There's of course a lot to commend on his record,

00:29:14: on the economy, job creation, green transition,

00:29:17: reshoring and entering the neoliberal Washington consensus,

00:29:20: as well as standing up to China,

00:29:22: although some of course would think he could do more there.

00:29:24: But there's a lot of issues that could be contested.

00:29:26: The question is whether he's up to that job

00:29:28: of doing the contesting.

00:29:29: And a lot of commentators today are saying that he's not.

00:29:32: A lot of the focus in Europe has been on the concerns

00:29:34: over what a Trump 2 presidency would bring,

00:29:37: even if on foreign policy,

00:29:38: actually a lot of it remains to be seen.

00:29:39: And it's very hard to read the runes on that.

00:29:42: And we've come from reading the room to reading the runes,

00:29:45: but it's difficult to know

00:29:47: what a Trump 2 presidency would bring.

00:29:49: We could imagine if certain people like Elbridge Colby,

00:29:52: for example, were appointed to that team,

00:29:54: we could see a lot less engagement with Europe

00:29:56: and a lot more very overtly America first,

00:29:59: quasi-isolationist policies,

00:30:00: dressed up as Asia first policy.

00:30:02: But other than that, it's hard to say

00:30:04: what would actually come because Trump is such a wild card.

00:30:06: On the domestic front, of course,

00:30:08: there's a lot of concern being floated around,

00:30:10: also from Republican figures.

00:30:12: So David from Bill Kristol, people like that,

00:30:16: who are very concerned about the safety of the Constitution

00:30:18: should Trump get elected.

00:30:20: And they are keen to point out

00:30:21: that the party of Reagan, Lincoln, and Eisenhower

00:30:26: has been the one to actually put that question

00:30:28: in the heart of the election,

00:30:30: which then of course raises questions

00:30:32: about Biden's suitability and so on.

00:30:33: But if the Democrats really can't come up with someone better

00:30:36: than someone who is obviously not up to the job,

00:30:38: then that's a real problem they're gonna have to deal with.

00:30:41: And it's not too late.

00:30:42: And it's certainly never getting any earlier

00:30:44: if they want to actually deal with it.

00:30:45: - Exactly.

00:30:46: One thing that really came out of that debate

00:30:48: or a question that I had right away

00:30:50: was who is actually running the White House?

00:30:52: It didn't give me the impression that Joe Biden,

00:30:55: who is the one who American people elected,

00:30:57: is actually making the decisions

00:30:59: that the American people actually elected him to make.

00:31:03: He just doesn't seem to have a strong enough grasp

00:31:05: on the issues there, which really brings up the fact

00:31:08: that as we've discussed on this show several times,

00:31:11: we shouldn't either underprice the risk of

00:31:15: that another Biden presidency would also have,

00:31:18: not simply talk about the risks

00:31:20: that another Trump presidency would have.

00:31:22: - That's right.

00:31:23: And I think this is something that actually comes out

00:31:24: of a new report that Andrew Mikhta has written for us

00:31:28: at the Action Group Titan Vendor Room,

00:31:29: which you can find in our show notes

00:31:30: and on the website of the DGAP,

00:31:32: is that even there were two potential outcomes

00:31:35: of the election, but actually the set of challenges

00:31:38: for Europeans in particular remains the same,

00:31:41: particularly on security and defense policy,

00:31:43: regardless of the tone, regardless of what Andrew rather,

00:31:46: euphemistically calls the atmospherics of the relationship

00:31:50: there, which we could expect to be somewhat different.

00:31:52: It must be said, the challenge for Europeans is to step up

00:31:56: and take care of their own security

00:31:58: in a serious and meaningful way.

00:32:00: And so while the NATO summit, which is happening

00:32:02: in Washington on the 10th and 11th of July,

00:32:05: so not far away at all now,

00:32:07: is taking place very much in the shadow of this election

00:32:09: and in the shadow of, for its European members

00:32:12: of the Alliance who make up, of course,

00:32:13: the farm majority of the Alliance

00:32:15: in terms of number of states and indeed in terms of population,

00:32:18: their concerns focus around the Trump presidency.

00:32:20: We really should be thinking more generally

00:32:21: how we can step up.

00:32:22: And thankfully, I think some around Europe

00:32:24: have got that memo.

00:32:25: And I've actually just been fortunate enough

00:32:27: to be writing a large, large report

00:32:29: on how we build the European pillar of NATO,

00:32:32: framed particularly from a central East European perspective

00:32:34: and the need to rebalance the Alliance.

00:32:36: But Aaron, let me put it to you that I think there are six things

00:32:39: that we need to do in order to really come up

00:32:42: with that credible offer of burden shifting,

00:32:45: not just burden sharing.

00:32:46: There are six elements to building the European pillar.

00:32:49: And these listeners, you'll be able to find

00:32:51: when this report comes out,

00:32:53: which hopefully should be next week.

00:32:55: And of course, we'll be promoting that on Twitter,

00:32:57: X and elsewhere.

00:32:59: But these six things, what are they?

00:33:00: One is to make sure that national capability contributions

00:33:03: on core military capabilities are up to scratch.

00:33:06: Do we have the tanks, the planes,

00:33:08: the infantry fighting vehicles and so on

00:33:11: to actually fulfill our NATO commitments

00:33:12: and as well as that highfalutin stuff

00:33:15: so we have the boring stuff, the amount of ammunition,

00:33:17: the number of trained soldiers,

00:33:19: the logistics or the logistics support and so on in place.

00:33:23: Second thing is logistics themselves.

00:33:26: Europe is weak on logistics and we need ground logistics,

00:33:29: we need air logistics in order to be able to get

00:33:31: the pointy end of our combat power

00:33:33: where it needs to be at the right time.

00:33:36: And that relates to the third pillar,

00:33:37: which is about military mobility.

00:33:38: At the moment, we have a severe problem

00:33:40: with military mobility in Europe

00:33:41: and we need to step that up.

00:33:42: There are some actions being taken on that,

00:33:44: but you can find a very good report in the show notes

00:33:47: from our colleague, Yannick Hartman,

00:33:49: who's been working on the Action Group Titan Vendor

00:33:50: for the last year and a half or so,

00:33:53: which discusses that in relation to Germany.

00:33:55: And in my report, I take that out a little wider

00:33:57: and talk about how that has to be a priority

00:34:00: for Central East Europeans,

00:34:01: linked up with Western Europeans in order to again,

00:34:06: make sure we've got the infrastructure,

00:34:08: that's the railway bridges taking the correct amount of weight,

00:34:11: the tracks that can actually carry tanks,

00:34:13: but also the rolling stock.

00:34:14: We don't at the moment have enough flatbed wagons

00:34:17: to actually carry the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles

00:34:19: we would need to move at scale and speed to the Eastern flank.

00:34:24: We also have to make sure

00:34:25: that our bureaucratic obstacles are removed.

00:34:27: And this is a remarkable thing.

00:34:28: There's just to indicate to the listeners

00:34:31: about how the lack of seriousness

00:34:32: which this has been taken in recent times,

00:34:35: an EU project to improve military mobility,

00:34:37: sought as its goal to get cross-border requests approved

00:34:42: within five working days.

00:34:44: Now, nevermind that we're under attack here, boys.

00:34:47: We're not gonna do this on a Sunday.

00:34:48: This is Europe after all.

00:34:50: I mean, come on, this is not serious.

00:34:52: So Europe needs to get down down to three days

00:34:54: at the most an emergent situation, less than that.

00:34:58: And that, yes, includes weekends.

00:35:00: Okay, the other three elements of this are air defense.

00:35:03: We know we have shortcomings in air defense

00:35:05: and we have to invest in that

00:35:06: and we have to do it in a common way.

00:35:07: And that's actually where Germany has taken a lead on this

00:35:11: through the European Sky Shield Initiative,

00:35:12: although it needs to do more work to coordinate that

00:35:15: with France and with France's concerns

00:35:17: about how employing a ballistic missile defense

00:35:20: might interfere with France's nuclear doctrine

00:35:22: and potentially change Russia's calculation

00:35:27: in ways that could actually hurt as well as help us.

00:35:29: The last two things are strategic enablers,

00:35:31: which are the kind of intelligence, surveillance

00:35:34: and reconnaissance, command and control capabilities,

00:35:36: mission networking, target identification

00:35:39: and target networking capabilities

00:35:41: that we need to actually give a chance

00:35:44: to our fighting capabilities to succeed

00:35:46: and to fight according to the way that we wish to

00:35:48: through NATO's technologically advanced doctrine

00:35:50: and which we lack in Europe greatly at the moment.

00:35:52: We're super reliant on the Americans for those things.

00:35:55: So we have to be able to step up there.

00:35:57: And the last one is strategic strike capability.

00:35:59: That means lots and lots

00:36:01: of long range precision missiles.

00:36:03: And again, we lack this at the moment.

00:36:05: Just think about how the devastating catastrophic response

00:36:10: that the US promised should Russia consider

00:36:13: using a theater nuclear weapon,

00:36:15: a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

00:36:16: That's based on having lots and lots of jasms

00:36:19: among other things, these stealthy cruise missiles.

00:36:22: We don't have that stock in Europe.

00:36:23: Poland and others are building up.

00:36:25: The Finns have ordered some as well,

00:36:27: but we need to do more on better on this.

00:36:29: And all of those things, those are expensive capabilities,

00:36:32: but they're things that we could procure together.

00:36:34: And by doing that together,

00:36:36: or by developing military mobility capability together,

00:36:38: we would actually better connect to the European allies

00:36:41: and really make that European pillar stick together.

00:36:43: So there's a preview of what I think we need to be doing

00:36:46: to be able to make that clear offer

00:36:48: to the Americans at the Washington summit.

00:36:50: And I hope that a European allies

00:36:52: are gonna pick up on those suggestions.

00:36:54: - We've obviously seen that some have.

00:36:55: I mean, this is something that Kayakalis herself

00:36:58: as Estonia's prime minister has been championing

00:37:01: for quite a while.

00:37:02: We obviously see some buy-in from France there.

00:37:04: That's why we even saw that joint borrowing proposal

00:37:09: come out that Olaf Scholz decided to,

00:37:11: again, put the kibosh on,

00:37:13: which is basically why we make the point once again,

00:37:16: that on the military aspect of NATO

00:37:19: and how to really make that credible offer

00:37:22: to Washington, at the Washington summit,

00:37:24: that we just don't see Germany actually grasping

00:37:28: how important this is, which is very, very strange,

00:37:30: given the context of what may or may not happen

00:37:34: in November on the US side.

00:37:36: But the upcoming Washington summit,

00:37:38: one thing that we are not likely to see there

00:37:41: is an invite for Ukraine to NATO.

00:37:45: And that brings up at a point that was made

00:37:50: in probably one of my favorite episodes of this season,

00:37:54: just getting into some of our highlights by Benjamin Haddad,

00:37:57: who basically said that there is a diplomatic dimension

00:37:59: to victory in Ukraine.

00:38:01: And part of that is giving Ukraine

00:38:05: a credible invitation to join NATO.

00:38:09: Where do you think we stand on with that in the future, Ben,

00:38:14: if we're not going to be seeing this in Washington?

00:38:17: It's certainly going to be hanging over discussions

00:38:19: at the Washington summit,

00:38:20: even if we don't see a decision, eh?

00:38:21: - That's certainly right.

00:38:22: And what we're hearing more and more

00:38:24: is this mantra of unity.

00:38:25: But unfortunately, it's unity around the position of Berlin,

00:38:28: rather than the position of Tallinn.

00:38:29: - Lois Komin, denominator.

00:38:31: - Lois Komin, denominator once again.

00:38:32: And we know that Germany, along with the US,

00:38:35: have been at the forefront of blocking

00:38:37: the potential invitation to Ukraine

00:38:39: or the concrete invitation to Ukraine.

00:38:41: And that is strange also for Europeans,

00:38:45: because while it looks like being good ally

00:38:47: from Germany's point of view,

00:38:49: what's right for Washington

00:38:50: isn't actually necessary right

00:38:52: for the European allies on this question,

00:38:54: because we are so much more directly affected

00:38:56: and so much more dramatically exposed

00:38:58: to the consequences of what goes down in Ukraine

00:39:02: that we really can't afford necessarily

00:39:03: to pursue that same position.

00:39:06: So what this does is put us back in the same state

00:39:09: that we were in last year,

00:39:09: where if there is not going to be

00:39:11: that concrete invitation,

00:39:12: what are we Europeans going to do?

00:39:14: So it actually revived some of the questions

00:39:16: that we were asking and answering last summer

00:39:19: in relation to is extending the joint expeditionary force,

00:39:22: the UK-led mini-alliance,

00:39:23: an option here for a genuine security guarantee.

00:39:26: Because what we've not seen in any of the security packs

00:39:29: that have been signed, these bilateral security packs,

00:39:32: is a mutual defense clause.

00:39:33: And that's of course what Ukraine

00:39:35: absolutely desperately needs.

00:39:37: And it's honestly what the rest of Europe will need

00:39:39: in order to make a stable security order in Europe,

00:39:43: which should be our primary concern.

00:39:45: So we're not going to see that.

00:39:47: And also Joe Biden has previously said

00:39:48: he's against the so-called NATOization of Ukraine policy.

00:39:52: So I think we could expect to see continuity

00:39:55: dressed up as unity and dressed up

00:39:57: as what we need to be doing when in fact,

00:39:59: it's not really close to that.

00:40:00: So again, this is why Europeans

00:40:02: really need to get a hold of this.

00:40:04: And by doing the best they can,

00:40:06: they then I think make the most credible offer possible

00:40:08: to the US, say that we are taking the steps

00:40:11: that we need to take, it's going to take a little while,

00:40:13: but we're now moving down the road

00:40:14: to take care of our own security.

00:40:17: And we'll still be reliant during that time

00:40:19: on American capabilities until we can fulfill them,

00:40:22: but also on American extended nuclear deterrents,

00:40:25: which as we heard about in our episode with William Albuke

00:40:28: and Fabian Hoffman and Kerry Buck,

00:40:31: which is one of my highlights of this season,

00:40:34: that's an issue that's not very well understood in Europe.

00:40:36: And so we need to raise our IQ on that matter.

00:40:38: - Absolutely, and that is also one of my favorite episodes,

00:40:41: simply because it's great for myth-busting.

00:40:46: When you get this argument about,

00:40:50: well, we can't do this because we might escalate the war

00:40:54: into a nuclear confrontation.

00:40:55: That certainly is something very much in the center

00:40:59: of the thinking of the German chancellery on this,

00:41:01: and it's an argument that we see made

00:41:03: outside of the chancellery as well.

00:41:06: But that was just such a great episode, wasn't it, Ben?

00:41:09: For many reasons, but one of the biggest was

00:41:12: because it did bust that myth in a very clear way.

00:41:15: - Yeah, and because that's such a common point

00:41:17: of misunderstanding in a lot of discussions,

00:41:18: willful or otherwise misunderstanding that we see

00:41:21: and hear here in Berlin.

00:41:23: But I tell you what,

00:41:24: I've got a couple of my other highlights from this season.

00:41:27: Aaron, I really love the discussions we did

00:41:28: with Yaroslav Trofimov and Chris Miller

00:41:31: on the two superb books that each of them had written.

00:41:34: Yaroslav's Our Enemies Will Vanish,

00:41:36: which was repotaged from the war in Ukraine,

00:41:39: and Chris Miller's book, Chip War,

00:41:40: which as I said on the episode was one of the books

00:41:42: I've learned most from that I've enjoyed as much as that.

00:41:45: So definitely continue to recommend both of those books

00:41:48: and do look back across those episodes

00:41:50: 'cause there was a lot of gold in them to mine through.

00:41:54: What else were your highlights?

00:41:55: - The final episode that we had, of course,

00:41:58: we went to a media briefing with Kayak Alice

00:42:01: and she had a few book recommendations of her own.

00:42:05: I would humbly submit to, you know,

00:42:07: hopefully our new European High Representative,

00:42:11: that if Chip War and Our Enemies Will Vanish are not

00:42:15: in her book club yet,

00:42:18: that they absolutely should be.

00:42:20: But that's another great moment that we had

00:42:24: on the fringes of the Leonard Mary Conference in Tallinn.

00:42:27: - It is, and I think we should start a new section

00:42:29: next season called Highly Recommended

00:42:31: by the High Representative.

00:42:33: HRHR.

00:42:33: - HRHR.

00:42:34: - HRHR.

00:42:36: - This new moving on.

00:42:37: And I would humbly submit one of my own entries

00:42:40: to that later in the summer

00:42:41: 'cause I've got the next collection of essays coming out,

00:42:44: which listeners you'll be able to get in July on Kindle

00:42:48: and in paperback, which is gonna be called Turning Point,

00:42:50: Germany, Ukraine, and Europe's Real Titan Vendor.

00:42:53: So hopefully we can get a copy of that

00:42:55: to the High Representative,

00:42:57: who I'm sure has nothing else to fill her summer with

00:42:59: and will be looking for beach reading.

00:43:01: But those were great books, but I tell you what,

00:43:03: we also got a great tip while we were in Tallinn,

00:43:06: didn't we?

00:43:07: Not book related, but music related.

00:43:09: - Oh, yes.

00:43:10: Absolutely.

00:43:12: We found ourselves after a very, very successful conference

00:43:15: recording many amazing episodes,

00:43:17: which I'm very proud of, at a Depeche Mode bar in Tallinn,

00:43:21: which is one of the best recommendations I think

00:43:24: that I've received maybe ever for a bar to go to

00:43:29: after a busy conference with themed drinks.

00:43:34: - It was quite something, exactly.

00:43:35: All the cocktails were named after Depeche songs

00:43:37: and they only played Depeche Mode songs at a whole time.

00:43:39: So a big thanks to our friend of the show, Giro Minier,

00:43:42: a member of the Action Group Titan Vendor,

00:43:44: who was actually the one to make that recommendation to us.

00:43:47: But you're right, we had a busy time

00:43:48: at the Leonard Mary Conference,

00:43:49: which was one of the highlights, I think, for both of us,

00:43:51: our high level panel that we did there

00:43:54: with Tim Snyder, Elliot Cohen, Marguerite Sarkin,

00:43:57: the Estonian Foreign Minister,

00:43:58: and Anna Isabel Xavier from Portugal,

00:44:00: the Deputy Defense Minister there.

00:44:02: But also, I really love doing those short conversations,

00:44:05: the talk of the town that we did

00:44:06: with so many of the guests at the conference.

00:44:08: So thanks to everyone who participated in that,

00:44:10: and thanks once again to Helga Kaum

00:44:12: for having us at the Leonard Mary Conference.

00:44:14: We look forward to broadcasting

00:44:15: from more security conferences in future.

00:44:19: But as well as all those themes,

00:44:20: we've been firmly keeping in mind

00:44:21: the need for Ukrainian victory throughout,

00:44:23: our Pillars of Victory series that we did on the show,

00:44:26: and also within the Action Group Titan Vendor,

00:44:28: because as friend of Berlin's side out, Chris Alexander,

00:44:32: who's been on the show a few times, has recently written,

00:44:35: and has a link to his new article

00:44:36: in the Globe and Mail in the show notes,

00:44:38: this is the pivotal conflict of our times.

00:44:41: And we've said time and again why we really think

00:44:43: this has to be something that the West prioritizes.

00:44:45: Winning why this is essential to creating that world of freedom

00:44:49: in the future that we want our children

00:44:50: and grandchildren to live in.

00:44:52: And so we've been proud to continue that theme

00:44:54: on the second season of Berlin Side Out,

00:44:56: and I can assure you it will continue into our third season,

00:44:59: which in a second Aaron's going to tell you

00:45:01: a little bit more about.

00:45:02: - Absolutely, but before I do,

00:45:05: one final highlight for me,

00:45:07: certainly I think about how Team Berlin Side Out

00:45:09: has not simply been bringing you the talk of Berlin

00:45:15: and kind of helping to understand the strategic debate

00:45:18: that we have here, but also we also move it sometimes too,

00:45:21: don't we Ben?

00:45:22: I mean, we've been doing that on a very key theme,

00:45:27: which is seizing Russia's state assets.

00:45:29: Now that was a part of our Pillars of Victory special.

00:45:33: We certainly share Chris's assessment

00:45:35: that he makes in that very good Globe and Mail article

00:45:39: that we have to do everything possible

00:45:40: to help Ukraine win, as Ben Hodges says,

00:45:43: we haven't even tried to win yet.

00:45:44: Trying to win means doing everything possible,

00:45:47: so that has military dimensions

00:45:48: and that has financial dimensions,

00:45:50: and part of seizing Russia's state assets goes to those.

00:45:54: We had a great episode with Senator Ratnar Omanovar

00:45:57: from Canada, with Robin Wagner from the German Bundestag,

00:46:00: Julius Suskina, who helped to write the repo act in the US

00:46:05: that allows the president to seize Russia's assets

00:46:09: if he chooses to use that power

00:46:10: with Ukrainian MP, Halina Yanchenko,

00:46:13: and we were at the center of hosting

00:46:16: a parliamentary breakfast in the German Bundestag

00:46:18: with over 100 attendees, about 20 MPs,

00:46:22: and we've seen a lot of interest

00:46:24: after hosting that breakfast.

00:46:27: Once those MPs got the message that this is legal,

00:46:30: it's economically feasible,

00:46:32: and most importantly, it is strategically imperative

00:46:36: that we do this.

00:46:38: So this is a moving story from us

00:46:41: that we've also been a part of,

00:46:43: and that's been a huge highlight for me

00:46:45: of this season of "Berlin's Side Out."

00:46:47: For me too, very much,

00:46:48: and this really epitomizes the ethos,

00:46:50: which we see as being the duty to put analysis

00:46:53: and evidence-based work into practice,

00:46:56: to actually use expertise for political purpose,

00:46:59: to having once you've identified your interests

00:47:01: and your values, to then actually go about advocating

00:47:03: for the policies and the positioning

00:47:07: that would give you the best chance

00:47:08: of achieving those interests

00:47:09: and protecting and promoting your values.

00:47:11: Do take a look at all the readings in our show notes

00:47:14: that we've compiled for you,

00:47:16: and watch out for news on neo-idealism

00:47:18: as a grand strategy for liberal democracies.

00:47:20: There's a big new piece on that coming out,

00:47:22: as well as on the strategic importance of hope.

00:47:24: Very much looking forward to sharing more of that with you.

00:47:26: Very much looking forward to engaging with you

00:47:28: through "Berlin's Side Out."

00:47:29: Aaron, from my side, it's been a pleasure to do this with you,

00:47:32: my friend and co-host over these first two seasons

00:47:34: of "Berlin's Side Out."

00:47:35: It's been a pleasure to do it at the DGAP,

00:47:37: and we're very grateful to all the team there

00:47:39: who made this happen for us.

00:47:40: But I leave it to you to close us out

00:47:42: and to say our feet of saying our cheers

00:47:44: for one final time from this second season of "Berlin's Side Out."

00:47:47: Aaron, over to you.

00:47:48: Absolutely. Well, and I can only say that it's been amazing

00:47:52: to do the first two seasons of "Berlin's Side Out"

00:47:55: with you, Ben, and we are...

00:47:57: I know we are looking forward to season three very much.

00:48:00: And you mentioned that piece on neo-idealism coming out.

00:48:03: I can tell you that I'm certainly very excited

00:48:06: to get into that.

00:48:07: And cutting in ever so rudely for just a second,

00:48:10: as is my want on occasion, but you bear with me.

00:48:13: We'd like to also say a big, big thanks to all of our listeners

00:48:16: from both you and I, Aaron,

00:48:18: because we've been so engaged with what "Berlin's Side Out"

00:48:20: has done, and without those listeners,

00:48:22: we wouldn't have made the impact that we actually have,

00:48:24: which we're delighted that it took off in the way that it has done,

00:48:27: which is why we've actually been able to build up the base

00:48:29: to be able to continue doing this.

00:48:31: So thank you very much for all of your interest

00:48:34: in how Germany sees the world and the world sees Germany.

00:48:37: And thank you for your questions as well,

00:48:39: which have also pushed us in addition.

00:48:42: You know, it's been a dialogue with a lot of listeners

00:48:46: also on social media.

00:48:47: So thank you very much for that.

00:48:48: And finally, thank you to the DJP team,

00:48:51: Hendrik Vanna, our producer, to Yulin Stukla.

00:48:54: As Ben said, stay tuned to our social media

00:48:57: for more updates on season three of "Berlin's Side Out."

00:48:59: But for now, for one final time,

00:49:01: from Berlin, Auf Wiedersehen and Tschüss.

00:49:05: (upbeat music)

00:49:08: (upbeat music)

00:49:10: (upbeat music)

00:49:13: (upbeat music)

00:49:16: (upbeat music)